SHEGOTGAME
Methodology · Transparency

How We Measure

The break-even math behind every benchmark you see on this site, why 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-leg tickets get exponentially harder, and how our own model performs against those thresholds week over week.

The 52.4% floor

Sportsbooks price standard sides and totals at -110 — you risk $110 to win $100. The break-even hit rate for that price is:

110 / (110 + 100) = 0.5238… → 52.4%

Anything below 52.4% loses money long-term at -110, and 52.4% flat just pays the juice. That's the number every single-leg pick on this site is measured against — see the Parlay Performance Score and /stats.

Sources: BettingPros break-even guide · Action Network

Parlays compound the bar

A parlay only pays if every leg wins. If each leg is independent and priced at -110, the break-even for the whole ticket is 0.524N where N is the number of legs.

2-Leg
27.5%
+264 implied
3-Leg
14.4%
+595 implied
4-Leg
7.5%
+1226 implied
5-Leg
3.9%
+2434 implied

The Washington Post analysis of sportsbook parlay economics is a clear read on why the industry pushes multi-leg tickets so hard. WaPo · Parlay popularity · Odds Assist

How SGG is actually doing

Player-submitted, built on SGG. Every slip below was assembled by a real user in the SGG parlay builder and finalized before tipoff — no shadow bets, no hindsight. Model-vs-book performance for the industry platforms (PP, UD, DK, FD, POTD) lives on the analytics grid.

Live grading pulled from every user slip finalized on the platform — 7-day, 30-day, and season windows, per leg count, with break-even as the pass/fail line. Buckets with fewer than five graded slips are hidden as “not enough data”.

LegsBenchmark7d30dSeason
2-leg27.5%43.8%(16 slips)34.2%(152 slips)35.0%(160 slips)
3-leg14.4%28.6%(14 slips)17.1%(140 slips)20.5%(166 slips)
4-leg7.5%25.0%(12 slips)11.9%(101 slips)13.0%(108 slips)
5-leg3.9%3.5%(29 slips)7.4%(149 slips)7.2%(166 slips)
Beating vigWatchBelow benchmarkNot enough data

Methodology notes

  • “Won” and “lost” are the only outcomes counted in the denominator. Pushes and pending slips are excluded — they don't settle the ticket either way.
  • The break-even table assumes independent legs at -110. Correlated markets (same-game props) are stricter in practice — worth watching but not the number the industry publishes.
  • A per-leg-count bucket needs at least 5 graded slips before we'll color it. Early-season and offseason windows regularly go 0-for-2 without meaning anything.
  • A drift alert scans every Monday and fires when any bucket sits below its benchmark for two consecutive weeks.

Further reading: ESPN · Billy Walters guide